The anticipated listing of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and accelerating political capital deployment ahead of Nigeria's 2027 election cycle will determine the trajectory of the NGX All-Share Index in the second half of 2026, according to leading market analysts who spoke to Nairametrics.
The NGX ASI delivered one of its strongest first-half performances in recent history, surging more than 54.71% year-to-date and briefly touching an all-time high of 252,508 points in May 2026. However, a sharp correction in June erased over N15 trillion in market capitalisation, pulling the benchmark index to 235,941 points by June 19.
Charles Fakrogha, CEO of ECL Asset Management, described H1 as a period of exceptional returns but urged measured optimism for the months ahead. He sees the market rebounding as Q2 results emerge from late July, with oil and gas, telecoms, and banking remaining preferred sectors. Fakrogha also flagged concerns over the NGX's T+1 settlement transition, noting that operators are complaining about infrastructural challenges that need automation before further reforms are rolled out.
Abiodun Ogunniyi, Head of Research at GTI Securities, anchored his outlook on pre-election year patterns across three previous cycles -- 2014, 2019, and 2022. He noted that pre-election years typically see equity market strength from January to May, followed by weakening from June, with August and September historically delivering negative returns. He identified four defining characteristics of H2 pre-election dynamics: equity market weakness, rising fixed income yields, rotation from equities into fixed income, and naira depreciation pressure as politicians convert holdings to fund campaign spending.
With the 364-day Treasury bill now yielding about 18.34% at the June 17 auction and OMO bills pricing between 20% and 22%, Ogunniyi argued that fixed income presents a compelling alternative to equities. He described the coming months as a bargain-hunting opportunity, advising investors on the sidelines to accumulate quality equities through the dip, particularly from August to September.
Chief Blakey Okwudili Ijezie, founder of Okwudili Ijezie & Co., offered the most bullish conviction on H2 catalysts. He attributed the recent market dip partly to investors exiting equities to participate in the Dangote Refinery private placement, and expects a similar pattern when the IPO launches in September. His preferred sectors are telecommunications (Airtel and MTN), banking (the FUGAZ names), and cement manufacturing (Dangote Cement, BUA Cement, and Wapco), with selective interest in upstream oil names Aradel Holdings and Seplat Energy.
Ijezie does not expect another 55% gain for the ASI in H2 but believes the market will outperform H1 on the back of strong corporate earnings and election-related spending flows into the economy.
Across all three analysts, consensus emerged around banking as a first-choice sector, supported by completed recapitalisation exercises, robust earnings growth, and digital revenue expansion. Telecommunications is similarly favoured for subscriber growth and resilient cash flows. Industrial goods -- particularly cement -- benefit from infrastructure spending, while agribusiness names such as Presco and Okomu Oil Palm are emerging consensus picks on food security concerns. Insurance was the one sector all three analysts explicitly avoided, citing structural illiquidity and thin margins.
Nigeria's anticipated inclusion in the FTSE Russell Frontier Market Index, expected before year-end, could trigger a surge in foreign portfolio inflows, partially offsetting pre-election capital flight pressure. Q2 2026 corporate earnings releases, expected from the third or fourth week of July, represent the single most important near-term catalyst for market direction.
The August-September window could present the deepest entry points of the year before a year-end recovery driven by portfolio rebalancing, improved political clarity, and resolution of uncertainty around the Dangote refinery listing and FTSE index inclusion.
