Dangote Group's Economic Research and Intelligence unit projects that the naira will trade around N1,330 per dollar in the fourth quarter of 2026, with a full-year average of about N1,385/$. The forecast, contained in the group's H1 2026 Economic Report, links the firmer exchange rate to rising foreign reserves, returning portfolio inflows and lower fuel import requirements.
The report attributed the naira's appreciation to reserve accumulation, positive real interest rates that attracted foreign portfolio investors, and an improving current account position as domestic refining reduced Nigeria's fuel import bill.
In the first half of 2026, the naira appreciated by about 4% against the dollar, trading near N1,380/$ in the official foreign exchange window. The appreciation continued through August, when the currency traded around N1,330/$.
The report stated: "Staff project the naira to hold its firmer level, averaging N1,405/$ in the second quarter, about N1,340/$ in the third and N1,330/$ in the fourth, for a full-year average close to N1,385/$."
The outlook comes amid an improvement in Nigeria's external buffers. Nairametrics earlier reported that Nigeria's net foreign reserves rose to a record $46 billion, while greater stability in the foreign exchange market is helping to strengthen investor confidence. The World Bank also said the naira was among Africa's most resilient currencies in the second quarter of 2026, with maximum depreciation limited to 2.6% despite exchange rate pressures across the continent.
The report also outlined growth scenarios for Nigeria in 2026, with full-year expansion ranging from 3.9% to 4.4%:
- A downside scenario in which tighter monetary policy and weaker confidence slow second-half activity, limiting full-year growth to 3.9%. - An upside scenario in which stronger oil production and earlier monetary easing lift growth to 4.4%.
It suggested that stronger-than-expected second-quarter performance indicated the drag from restrictive monetary policy might be fading sooner than previously anticipated, while capital budget execution and the expected onset of monetary easing could support aggregate demand in the fourth quarter.
