Global commercial oil inventories have fallen by more than 1 billion barrels since the start of the Middle East crisis, reducing the market's capacity to absorb another major supply disruption, Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Officer Amin Nasser said at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London this week.
Nasser warned that much of the oil remaining in storage is not readily available to the global market. Key figures from his assessment include:
- Less than 6 billion barrels of commercial inventories remain, with the vast majority not practically available. - More than 1 billion barrels have already been released, mainly from onshore commercial inventories. - Global oil demand stands at about 102 million barrels per day, according to the International Energy Agency.
"Less than 6 billion barrels of commercial inventories remain today, with the vast majority not practically available, so the system is already straining," Nasser said.
Governments and energy companies have increasingly relied on stored oil to offset supply shortages caused by the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine. The Group of Seven nations and their partners have agreed to release as much as 100 million barrels of crude oil and diesel from emergency reserves. Nasser described commercial inventories as one of the last major tools available to compensate for large-scale supply disruptions.
The planned G7 release represents less than one day of global consumption against demand of about 102 million barrels per day. The stocks are expected to be released gradually and targeted at areas facing the greatest shortages. "It took a lot of negotiations, but it is 100 million," Nasser said of the IEA decision. "Inventories are reaching a stress level. Only 10% or less is available, that's why they struggle with 100 million barrels."
The latest intervention follows an International Energy Agency emergency release of about 400 million barrels announced in March, which Nairametrics reported was the largest coordinated stock drawdown in the agency's roughly 50-year history.
Middle East crude exports have recovered to about 17.5 million barrels per day, roughly 98% of pre-conflict volumes. Refined product shipments, however, remain weak at about 3 million barrels per day, only 58% of pre-war volumes. Brent crude rose above $100 per barrel during the crisis, compared with around $72 per barrel before the war began.
