Nigeria's bilateral trade position with Canada reversed sharply in June 2026, recording a N23.21 billion deficit and ending a 16-month run of consecutive monthly surpluses, according to a Nairametrics Research review of National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) foreign trade data.
Exports to Canada fell to N1.54 billion in June, a 99.55% drop from the preceding month's level, while imports stood at N24.75 billion. The swing was driven mainly by the export side: outbound shipments plunged from N341.33 billion in May 2026 to N1.54 billion in June, more than offsetting a rise in imports from N8.60 billion to N24.75 billion.
The month-on-month deterioration in the trade balance was approximately N355.94 billion, moving from a N332.73 billion surplus in May to a N23.21 billion deficit. Exports declined 99.5% month-on-month, while imports rose 187.8%. Compared with June 2025, exports fell 99.7% from N482.44 billion to N1.54 billion, even as imports dropped 59.2% from N60.64 billion to N24.75 billion. A N421.80 billion surplus recorded in June 2025 therefore turned into a N23.21 billion deficit a year later, a deterioration of about N445.01 billion.
Soya bean product exports also weakened, declining 79% from N11.15 billion in Q1 2026 to N2.39 billion in Q2 2026.
Bilateral trade remains exposed to commodity demand cycles because Nigeria and Canada do not currently operate under a preferential trade agreement that gives Nigerian exports enhanced market access. Although the two countries held discussions in 2025 on a possible Nigeria-Canada Preferential Trade Agreement, no such framework had been implemented as of June 2026, leaving trade flows largely under existing multilateral arrangements.
The surplus streak had been strong through 2025, peaking at N554.02 billion in July 2025, with other notable monthly surpluses of N486.05 billion in May, N421.80 billion in June, N423.80 billion in February and N384.35 billion in April. The positive position carried into 2026, with surpluses of N358.02 billion in January, N58.31 billion in February, N148.84 billion in March, N388.07 billion in April and N332.73 billion in May before June's collapse pushed the balance into negative territory for the first time since January 2025.
For the first half of 2026, Nigeria still recorded a N1.26 trillion trade surplus with Canada, on exports of about N1.44 trillion and imports of about N180.95 billion. However, that was down from a N1.91 trillion surplus in H1 2025, a decline of N643.85 billion or 33.8%. Imports fell about 18.4% over the period, while exports fell at a faster rate of about 32.2%.
