Nigeria's headline inflation eased to 14.63% in September 2026, down from 15.39% in August and 20.98% in September 2025, according to figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics on 15 October 2026. The decline of 0.76 percentage points month-on-month and 6.35 points year-on-year marked a fourth consecutive monthly fall.
The improvement came almost entirely from harvest-season food price reductions. Food prices fell 1.55% month-on-month in September after rising 1.02% in August, with the NBS listing grains, rice, eggs, onions, palm oil, vegetables, potatoes, plantain and tomatoes among the items that declined. Rural prices dropped 0.89% month-on-month, while urban prices rose 0.53%, reflecting continued pressure from transport, rent, power and services in cities.
Underlying price momentum moved in the opposite direction. Core inflation, which strips out farm produce and energy, rose 1.11% month-on-month in September after a 0.06% fall in August. Compounding that monthly rate over twelve months produces an annualised pace of about 14.2%, above the published annual core rate of 12.95%.
Annual food inflation remained elevated at 19.59%, barely changed from 19.57% in August (Reuters, 15 October 2026). A household that spends half its income on food still faces prices around 20% higher than a year earlier.
Energy costs are adding to the pressure. Brent crude traded above $100 a barrel in mid-October, and some Abuja filling stations raised pump prices to about N1,405–N1,409 per litre. NNPC's N66-per-litre customer relief runs only until 31 October.
The World Bank's October 2026 Nigeria Development Update notes that inflation fell from 27.6% to 15.2% between January and December 2025 before stalling around 15.5% in 2026—more than double the rate among peer countries—largely because of the energy shock.
For the Central Bank of Nigeria, which cut the Monetary Policy Rate to 23% in September, the headline figure implies a real policy rate of 8.37 percentage points. However, the 364-day Treasury bill stop rate at the 14 October auction was 15.90%, leaving a real return of just 1.27 percentage points against headline inflation. Measured against the roughly 14.2% core pace, that cushion is thin.
