Nigeria's current struggles did not emerge overnight, and many are the result of self-inflicted policy failures stretching back decades, according to a new Op-Ed by chartered accountant and business analyst Kenechukwu Aguolu.
Writing for Nairametrics, Aguolu argues that rising insecurity, economic hardship, unemployment, weak infrastructure, declining public trust, and institutional weaknesses are warning signs that demand urgent attention. He traces the root of these challenges to the oil boom of the 1970s, when Nigeria squandered a unique opportunity to lay the foundation for sustainable economic growth.
Rather than using the windfall to diversify the economy and invest in productive sectors, the country grew increasingly dependent on crude oil. Agriculture — once the backbone of the economy — was neglected, while manufacturing remained reliant on imported machinery and raw materials. A mindset that oil wealth would last indefinitely took hold, memorably captured in the statement: "Money is not our problem; how to spend it is our problem."
By the late 1970s, Nigeria had effectively become a mono-product economy. The neglect of agriculture, manufacturing, and solid minerals left the nation dangerously exposed to fluctuations in global oil prices — a vulnerability that persists today.
The consequences are evident, Aguolu writes. Despite earning enormous oil revenues over several decades, millions of Nigerians continue to struggle with poverty, unemployment, poor public services, and inadequate infrastructure. Insecurity, he argues, is not merely a security problem but a symptom of deeper economic and governance failures. Military operations alone cannot create jobs, reduce poverty, or restore public confidence.
Aguolu acknowledges that recent reforms — including the removal of fuel subsidy, the floating of the naira, and ongoing tax reforms — represent difficult but necessary steps toward correcting long-standing structural distortions. While these measures have imposed short-term hardship on citizens and businesses, they are intended to create a more sustainable economic foundation.
However, he warns that reforms alone are not enough. More must be done by the current administration and successive governments to improve security, strengthen institutions, tackle corruption, expand infrastructure, promote industrialisation, and create meaningful employment. He cautions that nations rarely fail suddenly — decline often begins with ignored warning signs, weak institutions, and the mistaken belief that natural resources or population size guarantee success.
"Nigeria is not a failed nation. But neither is it too big to fail," Aguolu writes. He urges policymakers to confront today's realities with courage and an unwavering commitment to meaningful action, so that future generations inherit a prosperous and stable nation rather than continuing to pay for opportunities lost decades ago.
