Nigeria recorded 3.33 million barrels of crude oil theft in 2025, with roughly 66% of the reported volume concentrated in the fourth quarter, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC). The figures were contained in the commission's 2025 annual report released on Thursday, which also covered crude oil production, domestic supply, exports and field development activity.
The quarterly distribution of reported theft showed wide variation. In the first quarter, 896,471 barrels were recorded, while the second quarter posted a negative 200,400 barrels, described by the commission as an excess volume arising from its reconciliation exercise. Reported theft then stood at 440,434 barrels in the third quarter before climbing to 2.19 million barrels in the fourth quarter, the highest quarterly volume of the year.
On the production side, the annual report showed that Nigeria produced 541.08 million barrels of crude oil and blended condensate in 2025. Quarterly output was relatively stable, moving from 132.70 million barrels in the first quarter to 137.69 million barrels in the second quarter, then easing to 137.45 million barrels in the third quarter and 133.23 million barrels in the fourth quarter. Unblended condensate production added a further 48.52 million barrels during the year.
The NUPRC also outlined progress on field development plans intended to expand upstream capacity. A total of 75 field development plan applications were processed in 2025, comprising 58 received during the year and 17 carried over from 2024. Of these, 48 were approved, 10 were rejected and 17 remained under processing at year end.
The approved projects are expected to develop about 1.75 billion barrels of oil reserves, 104.48 million barrels of condensate reserves and 8.19 trillion cubic feet of gas reserves. They are projected to add approximately 743,830 barrels of oil per day, 23,707 barrels of condensate per day and 3.09 billion standard cubic feet of gas per day to production capacity. First oil from the approved projects is expected between 2026 and 2030, and seven of the 48 approved plans are focused exclusively on non-associated gas development.
The theft and production figures carry fiscal implications for the Federal Government. The 2026 budget is anchored on crude oil production of 1.84 million barrels per day and an oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel. Nigeria's crude oil production has averaged 1.505 million barrels per day since July 2026, according to OPEC data.
