The World Bank's October 2026 Nigeria Development Update provides a data-backed view of how President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's economic reforms are strengthening the country's fiscal and external position. Nigeria's economy expanded by 4.2 per cent in the first half of 2026, compared with 3.9 per cent in the corresponding period a year earlier, with growth driven mainly by services and a stronger agricultural contribution.
The report projects average growth of roughly 4.4 per cent through 2028, a trajectory expected to outpace population growth and support a gradual reduction in poverty, which has stabilised for the first time since 2019.
The reform programme has unfolded against a mixed global backdrop. Higher oil prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East interrupted the disinflation trend that had brought inflation down from 27.6 per cent in January 2025 to 15.2 per cent by December of that year. At the same time, firmer crude prices boosted export earnings, improved the external position and created additional fiscal opportunities.
Nigeria's current-account surplus reached approximately $12 billion in the first half of 2026, while external reserves rose from $45.5 billion at the end of 2025 to $53.8 billion by August 2026. Federation revenues increased 69 per cent in real terms between 2023 and 2025, reflecting exchange-rate reform, the removal of the petrol subsidy and improvements in revenue administration.
State governments, the largest beneficiaries of higher allocations, raised capital expenditure by 151 per cent in real terms, directing spending into roads, transportation, agriculture, energy and housing.
The article attributes these outcomes to decisions taken in 2023, including ending borrowing to fund consumption subsidies and dismantling the multiple exchange-rate system. Those steps, it argues, have improved Nigeria's ability to convert rising crude prices into national gains rather than remaining disproportionately exposed to associated pressures.
Despite the progress, the piece acknowledges that many households continue to face elevated food, transport, energy and business costs, and that global fuel prices have slowed relief. The World Bank assessment projects that inflation could decline towards 12 per cent by 2028 if the reform trajectory is sustained.
